Will baby Archie be making his big royal debut in the next few weeks?! New mom Meghan Markle may currently be on maternity leave, but many fans are speculating that she and her son will join the rest of the family at this year’s Trooping the Colour on June 8.

For the annual event, which takes places on every second Saturday of June, senior members of the royal family gather on the Buckingham Palace balcony to watch the parade and celebrate Queen Elizabeth‘s birthday. Harpers Bazaar reports that the 37-year-old — who made her debut at last year’s festivities just a few short weeks after marrying Prince Harry — is likely to show up, but not with Archie in her arms.

Meghan Markle and Prince Harry
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The evidence for predicting if the former Suits actress will show up with Archie or not? Recalling at the facts surrounding Kate Middleton‘s involvement at last year’s grand occasion just weeks after she had given birth to her third child with Prince William, Prince Louis.

Kate, also 37, gave birth to Louis around the same time Meghan introduced Archie to the world, just two days after welcoming him alongside Harry on May 6 —  would choose to opt out of the event with Archie. Kate attended, so it’s very likely we’ll see Meghan up on that balcony too.

Considering Louis’ young age at the time, though, Kate chose to not bring the little guy. That’s why we’re putting our money on Meghan keeping Archie at home for this year’s ceremony.

Kate and Prince William‘s older children, Prince George and Princess Charlotte, also didn’t attend the event until their parents felt they were at the appropriate age. George, 5, first attended shortly after turning 2 in 2015. Charlotte, 4, attended shortly after turning 1. For comparison, Archie will be exactly 1 month old for the 2019 Trooping the Colour.

The royal family
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Trooping the Colour turned into a tradition after it was first introduced to the royal family under the reign of King Charles II in the early 1600s. The parade, which first used for military purposes, became an annual event for the royal family after King George II decided to combine the ceremony with birthday celebrations in 1748. Elizabeth has followed that tradition ever since.

Fingers crossed we get to see Meghan — even though Archie will have to wait until next time!